As seems to be my annual tradition, I’m doing a recap of all my predictions I made a year ago. So here they are. If you’re curious here are my 2009 predictions (recap), 2008 , 2007 (recap), and 2006. So far I’m beating the house I’d say, some of these things I predicted in 2008 occurred in 2009, others from 2009 didn’t hit til 2010. But my guess is I’m hovering around 75% accuracy over the last 3 years or so.
1. Facebook hits 500M users by Q3 2010.
Dead on with this one. Exactly in september they announced 500M users. Booya. A+
2. Facebook makes a huuuge mobile push
They did get on every platform, and make strides to emphasize mobile tools (like locations) but still fell short of what I’d hoped (fb platform mobile). A-
3. Facebook acquires Foursquare or Brightkite
Brightkite did get acquired, though not by fb, but fb built their own location based tools. so i would get a C+
4. Hulu emphasizes the social layer to tv watching.
Meh, they added facebook connect, but failed to do much else other than go mobile. C-
5. MySpace has a major overhaul
Yup. A. would have been A+ had anyone still cared about Myspace.
6. Someone will finally make it easy for small businesses to get online
Squarespace did some stuff, network solutions did some stuff, but nothing exciting happened here yet. C’mon people this is a BILLION $ business waiting to be built. Though you could argue facebook pages are the answer to this. C
7. Social gaming companies evolve out of facebook.com
Yup, Zynga powered this, they are now on iOS, Yahoo, MSN, and their own domains. A
8. Electronic Arts “socializes” some of their top games
EA bought playfish, and brought some of their games to fb. Still not what I would have expected (where the eff is simcity as a competitor to yoville by zynga?) B+
9. Physical P2P credit card transactions/money transfers don’t take off
Nothing mainstream has happened yet, none of my non-tech friends have asked to bump me money or square me away. So unfortunately for that industry I’m right.
10. Twitter undergoes a major re-org design wise.
Super correct on this one. A+. This happened over the summer if I recall correctly.
Overall grade 75% which if you were a betting man, would mean you just beat the house.
Coming soon, 2011 predictions.